CO2 Now

January 2010 

Year ends with record-high CO2 level in the atmosphere

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii  (USA)   Atmospheric CO2 was 387.27 parts per million (ppm) in the last month of 2009, according to scientific data released January 7, 2010, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States.  Atmospheric CO2 was 385.54 ppm one year earlier in December 2008.   

The 2009 annual mean concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 387.35 ppm, up from 385.57 ppm in 2008.

These rising levels are significantly higher than the natural range (~180 ppm to 300 ppm) that existed for at least 2.1 million years until the start of the industrial revolution. [reference]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the chief human-made greenhouse gas that fuels global warming, climate change and ocean  acidification.  The main anthropogenic source of CO2 emissions is the use of fossil fuels for energy.  Atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise with on a year-over-year basis because carbon emissions from human sources exceed the capacity of the land and oceans to absorb it.   The absorbtion of CO2 by oceans is a natural process that both slows the rate of global warming and puts damaging quantities of carbonic acid in the oceans.   The most direct thing that people can do is make decisions and take actions that  actually reduce and eliminate the addition of more invisible CO2 into the atmosphere.  

More
>>> Click here to see the full set of Mauna Loa monthly mean CO2 data   
>>> About the seasonal cycle for atmospheric CO2

December 2009:        387.27 parts per million (ppm)
 
December 2008:        385.54
December 2007:        383.84
December 2006:        381.85
December 2005:        380.07
December 2004:        377.51
December 2003:        375.97

December 1999:        367.85
December 1989:        352.66
December 1979:        336.78
December 1969:        324.12
December 1959:        315.59

>>> Click here to see the full set of monthly data for atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory

 

CO₂ |  Rate of Increase 

The following is an excerpt from the 2007 "physical science basis" report by the International Panel on Climate Change Working Group:   

The annual CO2 concentration growth rate was larger during the last 10 years (1995-2005 average: 1.9 ppm per year) than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960-2005 average: 1.4ppm per year), although there is year-to-year variability in growth rates.  [IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 2 Page 37]

More recent and detailed CO2 data is published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and theScripps Institution of Oceanography.   Using the most recent data for the mean annual concentration of CO2 data, the editor of Atmosphere Monthly calculated the ten-year averages set out below.   This gives you rate of change data years ahead of the most recent report of the International Panel on Climate Change.  

Decade            Annual Rate of Increase (Atmospheric CO2)

2000 – 2009         1.92 ppm

1990 – 1999         1.52 ppm

1980 – 1989         1.61 ppm

1970 – 1979         1.22 ppm

1960 – 1969         0.86 ppm 

The following articles are shortlisted from the weekly listings of Climate Change Media articles compiled by David Spratt of Australia.   Click here for information about this and other "carbon media" services that are available. 

Gorbachev  |  We have a real emergency

As the climate change summit meeting moves forward in Copenhagen, it is increasingly clear that more than just the environment is at stake. 

“...policy compromises agreed to by negotiators involved in the Copenhagen talks virtually guarantee a temperature increase of around 4 degrees Celsius — well into the catastrophic risk range. Why is this happening?” >>>>NY Times >  Dec 9 2009 

McKibben  |  No time for tears in Copenhagen

“This afternoon I sobbed for an hour, and I’m still choking a little. I got to Copenhagen’s main Lutheran Cathedral just before the start of a special service designed to...” 

“If all countries' plans now on the table were adopted the atmosphere in 2100 would be 770 ppm CO2.”  >>>>Grist > Dec 13 2009 

IPCC forecasts 9m sea-level rise if temperatures meet 2˚C threshold

“Global sea levels could rise by up to 9m in the next few hundred years, even if the world manages to stabilise average temperatures to 2˚C above pre-industrial levels, according to a new study.”    >>> >The Guardian > Dec16 2009   >>>>Nature > Nov 2009 Abstract

Sea levels may rise three times more than first thought

Sea levels may rise three times faster than the official predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the global average sea level may increase by as much as 1.9 metres (6ft 3in) by 2100, scientists said yesterday. >>>>Independent > Dec 8 2009  >>>>PNAS > Dec 4 2009 (Abstract)

Leaked UN report shows cuts at Copenhagen would lead to 3˚C rise

A UN Secretariat initial draft shows a gap of up to 4.2 gigatonnes of CO2 between present pledges and cuts required to limit rise to 2˚C.   >>>> The Guardian  |  Dec 17 2009 

Scientists  |  Copenhagen chaos sets world on track for 3.5 ˚C

Pearce & Brahic  Western leaders departed from Copenhagen claiming to have secured a global agreement to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius, but scientists at the talks said it would set the world on a path to 3.5 degrees of warming by 2100.  >>>>NewScientist  |  Dec 19 2009

2000 - 2009  |  The warmest decade on record

The past 10 years have been the warmest in recorded history, according to the UK Met Office.  >>>> World Meteorological Organisation > Dec 8 2009  >>>>The Guardian > Dec 8 2009

Climate science in 2009

For climate science, the year 2009 brought significant discoveries and startling controversies.  >>>>Nature.com > Dec 17 2009

The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report 2009

The purpose of this report is to synthesize the most policy-relevant climate science published since the close-off of material for the last IPCC report.

The rationale is two-fold.

Copenhagen 2009: The unconventional climate convention

December 18, 2009  Delegates at the Copenhagen climate "noted" the existance of the Copenhagen Accord.    They did not "adopt" the Accord.   To get a legal perspective on what these United Nations terms mean , click here for an explanation provided by the World Resources Institute. 

Key sections of the Copenhagen Accord are reprinted below.  Click here to read the full text at the UNFCCC website. 

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The Copenhagen Accord

In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in its Article 2....Parties under the Kyoto Protocol to continue its work, Have agreed on this Copenhagen Accord which is operational immediately.

1.   We underline that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. We emphasise our strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, we shall, recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term cooperative action to combat climate change.  We  recognize the critical impacts of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects and stress the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support.

2.   We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science, and as documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with a view to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity. We should cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries and that a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development.

3.   Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries....We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in developing countries.

4.   Annex I Parties commit to implement individually or jointly the quantified economy wide emissions targets for 2020, to be submitted in the format given in Appendix I by Annex I Parties to the secretariat by 31 January 2010 for compilation in an INF document...

5.   Non-Annex I Parties to the Convention will implement mitigation actions, including those to be submitted to the secretariat by non-Annex I Parties in the format given in Appendix II by 31 January 2010, for compilation in an INF document...

>>>>UNFCCC > Copenhagen Accord of December 18, 2009

The following is a partial scan of the empty appendix at the end of the Copenhagen Accord.